Frenemies No More? How Trump’s Tariffs Might Push China and Japan Into Each Other’s Arms
This article is fresh off the presses, just like the "Liberation Day" tariffs unleashed by President Trump on April 2, 2025. And what liberation it's turning out to be!
Because this news is so recent, what follows are my own unpolished views, combining available data with bold, speculative predictions: Exactly the kind of free-thinking analysis I love to offer.
Trump’s tariffs were a wrecking ball in the global trade landscape. These are the most massive tariffs imposed in modern US history, targeting trade surplus numbers like a bull charges red. China took the biggest blow, facing a staggering 34% tariff on all exports, effectively creating a towering 54% barrier when combined with earlier duties. That’s a whopping $157 billion in new tax burdens on Chinese goods annually.
However, Japan wasn’t exactly spared either, absorbing a brutal 24% tariff on its US-bound exports, many of which come from its prized auto and electronics sectors. With $152 billion in Japanese goods flowing to the US in 2024, the cost to Japan is enormous. For a country whose trade surplus with the US hit $68.5 billion, the pressure is now unbearable.
And that’s the key here: Pressure.
These tariffs are existential threats for two of Asia’s biggest exporters, and because of Trump’s obsession with eliminating trade deficits, they are unlikely to go away.
In China, the consumer electronics and machinery sectors, industries that account for hundreds of billions in export value,are now staring down a near-insurmountable 54% effective tariff. Japan’s automotive and precision instrument industries, which rely heavily on US demand, are grappling with a sudden 24% barrier that could erode their global competitiveness and trigger production cuts, layoffs, and capital flight for Asia’s two biggest exporters.
And when two powers face a shared threat, they sometimes, just sometimes, stop glaring at each other and start talking.
That’s my central thesis: Trump’s hammering has made Japan and China desperate enough to rethink their frosty posture toward each other.
President Xi Jinping, long known for wielding nationalism and historical grievances against Japan as political tools with his so-called wolf warrior diplomacy, has recently shown clear signs of dialing down his anti-Japanese rhetoric. A few short years ago, it'd be impossible to imagine China lifting its seafood import ban imposed after Japan's Fukushima wastewater release in 2023, yet it's happening right now. Xi seems intent on rebranding China as the grown-up in global trade relations, signaling openness to new economic partnerships, including, shockingly, with Japan. Beijing’s recent diplomatic overtures towards Tokyo underscore this shift, such as Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s statement in March that China would "constantly unearth the potential for cooperation" with Japan and South Korea. The tone at recent trilateral summits has been notably softened, emphasizing "future-oriented cooperation" rather than historical disputes. as high-level dialogues and economic summits become increasingly common.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba finds himself navigating the stormiest political waters Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has seen in decades. After a catastrophic electoral defeat, the LDP’s first significant loss in generations, Ishiba desperately needs an economic victory to shore up his weakened position.
Aligning with China, controversial though it may be, might offer precisely the economic lifeline Japan needs to reinvigorate its exports and stabilize markets at home. With the US becoming increasingly unreliable, Japan has fewer and fewer options, and China, of all countries, might just become the one worth betting on.
On top of that, a subtle yet powerful undercurrent supports this unlikely rapprochement. Chinese immigration to Japan has surged to record levels, with almost one million Chinese nationals now calling Japan home, a trend driven by Japan’s efforts to address its demographic crisis and labor shortages. These immigrants are bridging cultural divides in real-time, fostering grassroots connections and mutual understanding between these historical adversaries. The growing Chinese community in Japan could become instrumental in deepening bilateral relations, facilitating trade partnerships, and nurturing a climate of mutual respect.
Fixing China-Japan ties is no easy task, but…
History provides no shortage of grievances. Japan’s wartime occupation of China remains a deep scar, with atrocities like the Nanjing Massacre continuing to shape Chinese national memory. Meanwhile, Japan bristles at what it sees as China’s constant revisiting of past grievances for political leverage. Add in the ongoing territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and decades of nationalist posturing, and it's no surprise that mutual distrust has been hardwired into both countries' media narratives and school textbooks.
Yet here’s the paradox: for all this animosity, China and Japan are far more alike than either would like to admit. Both societies are steeped in Confucian values, emphasizing education, discipline, social harmony, and respect for hierarchy. Both are export-driven economies wrestling with aging populations, energy dependency, and environmental pressures. Their citizens obsess over punctual trains, admire craftsmanship, and have a deep appreciation for the art of doing something well. These shared foundations, rarely discussed in geopolitical analysis, are precisely what could make cooperation not just possible, but surprisingly effective.
The truth of the matter is that Japan and China has much more in common than either country has with the US!
Imagine, for a moment, if Japan’s precision manufacturing prowess and cutting-edge tech expertise could be seamlessly combined with China’s unmatched manufacturing scale and robust supply chains. Imagine further that cultural exchanges intensified, creating deeper mutual appreciation through shared pop culture, cuisine, and tourism. While this vision may seem ambitious, it's not entirely out of reach, several Chinese and Japanese firms have already expressed interest in collaborative R&D projects, and government-led trade dialogues are laying the groundwork. The challenge, of course, lies in navigating political sensitivities and building trust, but the economic incentives are strong enough to make such ventures not just realistic, but increasingly probable in the near future.
The economic potential would be transformative, joint ventures between giants like Toyota, Sony, Alibaba, and Tencent could reshape global markets, especially in high-tech sectors like electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotech innovation. Just a 10% increase in collaboration across these industries could generate tens of billions in additional trade value annually, according to a 2024 estimate from the East Asia Economic Forum, which projected such a rise could contribute up to $35 billion in bilateral GDP gains within five years in additional trade value annually and spark job creation on both sides of the East China Sea.
Moreover, the strategic alignment of these two economic powerhouses could recalibrate geopolitical dynamics, potentially stabilizing the entire Asian region.
It’s no secret that I blame China for much of the geopolitical instability in East Asia, but let’s be fair, other countries, Japan included, haven’t exactly made things easier by cornering China at every turn. If Japan were to adopt a more peaceful and cooperative stance, it could shift the regional dynamic in a major way. Sure, China would still maintain its territorial claims and strategic ambitions, but it would likely become far less aggressive in asserting them if the price was risking a crucial economic companionship, especially with the US increasingly disengaged from the region. A collaborative approach could offer both countries a stronger negotiating position globally, especially in trade disputes with Western nations. Such a partnership would also send a compelling message to other nations navigating the complex global trade environment.
In short, while Trump's tariffs may have triggered economic upheaval, they might ironically catalyze a historic turning point for China and Japan, forging a powerful, albeit improbable, alliance born from shared adversity.
Is this scenario speculative? Absolutely.
Some will say it's naive to believe centuries of mistrust can be undone by a few economic shocks. And yes, domestic opposition in both Japan and China could stall even the best-laid diplomatic plans. But when the old world order frays and your most dependable partner, America, starts pulling away, even the unthinkable starts to look pragmatic.
That’s the bet I see Japan and China preparing to place. Not because they suddenly like each other, but because the alternative is worse. Desperation, after all, is one hell of a motivator. And if this new pressure cooker of tariffs forces Beijing and Tokyo into a cold, calculated partnership, history might look back on April 2 not as the day the US "liberated" itself, but the day it inadvertently launched the next great power alliance in Asia.
Let’s see how history judges that gamble…
🤣