Japan is the oldest society in the world, but how bad is it really? This article dives into the facts about the country's plummeting birthrate and its socio-economic implications.
I apologize, that was rude of me. I should have said it in a nicer way.
Tbh, I've been tired of the more occurring western woke/progressive ideas or solutions getting thrown into articles lately. Just some honest feedback. I apologize for being a jerk about it.
And I look forward to your analysis on Japan Tobacco
I do think you bring up an important point though. Countries with minimal state intervention often have higher birth rates due to various factors like agricultural support structures where family contributions are valued differently. For example, in countries like Nigeria, the fertility rate was around 5.3 children per woman in 2021, compared to Japan's 1.36 in the same year. The biggest reason for this is most people's agrarian lifestyle where every kid is a resource rather than a financial burden as they can help increase the family income from 5-6 years old.
Translating this to Japan is not straightforward, though. Japan's advanced economy means higher living costs, a need for specialized education, and a shift away from this agrarian lifestyle. As most jobs in advanced economies require advanced training and degrees, kids are therefore a financial burden until they are 18 or older.
There are likely more solutions than government intervention to increasing childbirths in developed nations, but I do believe making the burden of childcare smaller is the best solution we have so far, even though as you point out, results have been mixed at best.
Looking forward to continuing the discussion and sharing my analysis on Japan Tobacco!
Interesting article, Rei. I certainly agree with improved childcare provision as part of the multitude of measures that need to be tried to raise the birth rate. Putting it bluntly, in developed countries, there seems to be a strong correlation between the amount that women are paid to have children by the state, whether directly or indirectly, and the number of children they have. One proposal I believe Japan should try is to charge no income tax to households with three or more children. If the policy is successful, the birth rate goes up. If it is not, there is no cost. If the policy succeeds, the cost to society would be limited because bond markets would very quickly discount improving demographics were the foregone income tax to be covered by borrowing and the "extra" babies would be taxpayers in 20-30 years' time. Immigration can't solve the numbers deficit alone, but some immigration arguably has useful other effects from which Japanese society could benefit. Allowing dual nationality makes perfect sense for Japan but continues to be resisted by the legislature, although longer-term that position seems untenable or, at the very least, irrational. In other areas, Japan simply needs to become more child-friendly or even just less hostile to them. One small example: Japan's airports are the only ones I know that don't allow families with small children to the front of the immigration queue (last time I tried) & splits multi-national families up by passport held.
I think especially important to note is the quality and accessibility of childcare and "child activity" programs that aren't cram schools or amusement parks.
For starters, getting our son into preschool felt like a complicated university application process and despite the declining birth rate, preschools are packed.
Next, the parks and community centers generally are lousy. A rusty pull up bar, a broken swing and a slide with a screw sticking out of it :-) I know this is municipal and other cities have done a better job but we're in a growing area (Okayama) and admittedly the local government doesn't pay much attention to recreation, festivals and "spirit" but play fields being just a fenced gravel field and community centers with signs saying "don't do this, don't do that…" are a real drag.
Another example: This summer, I was hoping to have some fun going to swimming pools with my kid by bus (I no longer drive) and there was just not any reasonable options. We thought about getting him into some kind of sports clubs but again, unless you're "super ultra serious" there are no options just to have fun. Same goes for recreational arts/culture/hobby programs. Sure, they exist and even great parks exist but they are the exception, not the norm.
Also, my wife who owns a small arborist business of her own "slips between the cracks" of the womenomics as she doesn't work for either civil service or a big company so getting any kind of support, incentive, tax break etc. is more complicated than it's worth. I wouldn't care so much except when you see benefits available towards people working in "normal/traditional" career path rather than entrepreneurial, is definitely frustrating and another barrier to sparking new businesses to create and expand tax bases.
Of course the whole problem about not recognizing dual nationals is at this point absurd as it only really gets enforced in high profile situations (Olympians etc.) and is obviously flexible for high profile sports players (national rugby team for example).
I love living here and I have no plans I'm going back to one of my previous countries so I want to make the best of it.
All of this is a long way of saying "thank you for your nuanced report" as so often the topics are glossed over with a few high-level numbers and a "doom and gloom" outcome by folks who have may be visited Tokyo but don't know that there's a whole country beyond Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka.
Thanks for this great article. I did not know that countries like Sweden managed to stem the drop in birthrates and great point on the short-term effects of immigration.
Great points on the need for childcare support. It is not possible to rear child(ren) and be economically productive without state support. Just ask any parent you know about the support structures required!
From a cursory search on the internet, it looks like Tokyo has the lowest fertility rates and prefectures such as Okinawa, Miyazaki are at the top. These seem to be less urbanized, maybe that is a reason?
side note, I think you meant to say "deceased", not "diseased", about Mr Abe.
Thank you for your feedback! You've touched on a key point about rural areas often having higher birth rates, which can be attributed to factors like lower living costs, larger living spaces, and close-knit community support, which can alleviate some of the pressures of parenting.
In terms of policy, replicating these supportive elements in urban settings could help. This might include subsidizing childcare, creating family-friendly work policies, and investing in community-building activities that mimic the supportive networks found in rural areas.
And good catch on the typo - it should have been "deceased" for Mr. Abe. I'll correct that right away.
Higher taxes, following the West's propaganda, and expecting the gov giving handouts for housing and child care won't fix anything. Stick to stock analysis, that's what you're good at.
That's rude. However, I hope you are pleased with my upcoming stock analysis on Japan Tabacco (2914). A controversial pick, but a very interesting stock.
I apologize, that was rude of me. I should have said it in a nicer way.
Tbh, I've been tired of the more occurring western woke/progressive ideas or solutions getting thrown into articles lately. Just some honest feedback. I apologize for being a jerk about it.
And I look forward to your analysis on Japan Tobacco
I do think you bring up an important point though. Countries with minimal state intervention often have higher birth rates due to various factors like agricultural support structures where family contributions are valued differently. For example, in countries like Nigeria, the fertility rate was around 5.3 children per woman in 2021, compared to Japan's 1.36 in the same year. The biggest reason for this is most people's agrarian lifestyle where every kid is a resource rather than a financial burden as they can help increase the family income from 5-6 years old.
Translating this to Japan is not straightforward, though. Japan's advanced economy means higher living costs, a need for specialized education, and a shift away from this agrarian lifestyle. As most jobs in advanced economies require advanced training and degrees, kids are therefore a financial burden until they are 18 or older.
There are likely more solutions than government intervention to increasing childbirths in developed nations, but I do believe making the burden of childcare smaller is the best solution we have so far, even though as you point out, results have been mixed at best.
Looking forward to continuing the discussion and sharing my analysis on Japan Tobacco!
Interesting article, Rei. I certainly agree with improved childcare provision as part of the multitude of measures that need to be tried to raise the birth rate. Putting it bluntly, in developed countries, there seems to be a strong correlation between the amount that women are paid to have children by the state, whether directly or indirectly, and the number of children they have. One proposal I believe Japan should try is to charge no income tax to households with three or more children. If the policy is successful, the birth rate goes up. If it is not, there is no cost. If the policy succeeds, the cost to society would be limited because bond markets would very quickly discount improving demographics were the foregone income tax to be covered by borrowing and the "extra" babies would be taxpayers in 20-30 years' time. Immigration can't solve the numbers deficit alone, but some immigration arguably has useful other effects from which Japanese society could benefit. Allowing dual nationality makes perfect sense for Japan but continues to be resisted by the legislature, although longer-term that position seems untenable or, at the very least, irrational. In other areas, Japan simply needs to become more child-friendly or even just less hostile to them. One small example: Japan's airports are the only ones I know that don't allow families with small children to the front of the immigration queue (last time I tried) & splits multi-national families up by passport held.
Thanks for this deep dive.
I think especially important to note is the quality and accessibility of childcare and "child activity" programs that aren't cram schools or amusement parks.
For starters, getting our son into preschool felt like a complicated university application process and despite the declining birth rate, preschools are packed.
Next, the parks and community centers generally are lousy. A rusty pull up bar, a broken swing and a slide with a screw sticking out of it :-) I know this is municipal and other cities have done a better job but we're in a growing area (Okayama) and admittedly the local government doesn't pay much attention to recreation, festivals and "spirit" but play fields being just a fenced gravel field and community centers with signs saying "don't do this, don't do that…" are a real drag.
Another example: This summer, I was hoping to have some fun going to swimming pools with my kid by bus (I no longer drive) and there was just not any reasonable options. We thought about getting him into some kind of sports clubs but again, unless you're "super ultra serious" there are no options just to have fun. Same goes for recreational arts/culture/hobby programs. Sure, they exist and even great parks exist but they are the exception, not the norm.
Also, my wife who owns a small arborist business of her own "slips between the cracks" of the womenomics as she doesn't work for either civil service or a big company so getting any kind of support, incentive, tax break etc. is more complicated than it's worth. I wouldn't care so much except when you see benefits available towards people working in "normal/traditional" career path rather than entrepreneurial, is definitely frustrating and another barrier to sparking new businesses to create and expand tax bases.
Of course the whole problem about not recognizing dual nationals is at this point absurd as it only really gets enforced in high profile situations (Olympians etc.) and is obviously flexible for high profile sports players (national rugby team for example).
I love living here and I have no plans I'm going back to one of my previous countries so I want to make the best of it.
All of this is a long way of saying "thank you for your nuanced report" as so often the topics are glossed over with a few high-level numbers and a "doom and gloom" outcome by folks who have may be visited Tokyo but don't know that there's a whole country beyond Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka.
Thanks for this great article. I did not know that countries like Sweden managed to stem the drop in birthrates and great point on the short-term effects of immigration.
Great points on the need for childcare support. It is not possible to rear child(ren) and be economically productive without state support. Just ask any parent you know about the support structures required!
From a cursory search on the internet, it looks like Tokyo has the lowest fertility rates and prefectures such as Okinawa, Miyazaki are at the top. These seem to be less urbanized, maybe that is a reason?
side note, I think you meant to say "deceased", not "diseased", about Mr Abe.
Hi Robert,
Thank you for your feedback! You've touched on a key point about rural areas often having higher birth rates, which can be attributed to factors like lower living costs, larger living spaces, and close-knit community support, which can alleviate some of the pressures of parenting.
In terms of policy, replicating these supportive elements in urban settings could help. This might include subsidizing childcare, creating family-friendly work policies, and investing in community-building activities that mimic the supportive networks found in rural areas.
And good catch on the typo - it should have been "deceased" for Mr. Abe. I'll correct that right away.
Higher taxes, following the West's propaganda, and expecting the gov giving handouts for housing and child care won't fix anything. Stick to stock analysis, that's what you're good at.
That's rude. However, I hope you are pleased with my upcoming stock analysis on Japan Tabacco (2914). A controversial pick, but a very interesting stock.